This is a must read 👇👇👇
the bulk of the work on avax econonomics basically gets down to being able to answer one 'simple' question:
how to make avax be in the top 10 spot it needs to be, at around 70B fdv?
70B fdv is a 9-10x from here, but it's not that hard if you look into the numbers, let me explain
in some cases, at least in engineering, you start from the solution, the result, and then find a way backward
so what happens at 70B fdv?
the 70B fdv is based on the total supply, not the max supply, bc that's how most chains are valued, so it would mean avax would be at 150$ roughly (coincidentally, its 2021 peak)
to have a billion dollars of revenue (c-chain fees + payg validator fees) at that price would mean 6.7M AVAX burned per year
I didn't invent the billion dollars revenue - I'm applying the standard P/E ratio for growth companies like Tesla, that's around 70x
in 2025 the total revenue (burned) it’s predicted to be 400k AVAX
there’s two levers we can use to get to 6.7M AVAX (so a 17x from where we are):
- increase fees from C-Chain
- increase fees from L1s
and with this I don’t mean increasing gas fees, but find a way to incentivize all participants to spend more often or more in absolute terms
sometimes, formulating the problem correctly is 90% of the work
let’s hope this is the case
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