永恒牛市-牛市开空

KAS｜Kaspa Projects like Kaspa are most easily overlooked when the market is too noisy. This is because it doesn't tell the most exciting story, but rather addresses more fundamental underlying needs, especially regarding network adoption and miner expectations. If categorized by scale, it currently roughly belongs to the billion-dollar level, classified under PoW/high-performance networks. To conclude, it now resembles an asset that needs to be examined structurally, rather than a name that can be easily defined by its popularity. Whether the market is willing to continue valuing it is not a mystery; it still depends on whether hash power growth shows an increase and whether funds are willing to stay for this line. At this stage, Kaspa is no longer suitable to be summarized with a single phrase like "there's a story." What truly determines whether it can still be viewed favorably is whether hash power growth is still expanding and whether network adoption and miner expectations can provide stable feedback. The market's patience with it has decreased compared to before; however, as long as the data remains, attention won't just vanish. Many people writing about Kaspa tend to fall into two extremes: either they deify it or they ignore it entirely due to its slow pace. In fact, neither is necessary. A more stable approach is to place it back in the PoW/high-performance network category and see if its advantages are still clear compared to projects in the same lane, and whether its shortcomings are expanding. If its advantages remain, even if the rise is slow, the market will eventually redirect its attention; if the advantages begin to dilute, no matter how loud the narrative is, it won't hold up for long. My judgment on Kaspa leans towards neutral and tracking. It isn't devoid of imagination, but the market is no longer willing to pay a high premium for pure imagination; what really needs to be observed is whether the technical highlights can translate into sustained trading depth. This is also the most interesting aspect: analyzing the logic is sufficient; there's no need to frame it as an emotional slogan. # LayerZero承诺超1万枚ETH支持Aave $BTC

OP | Optimism The market always chases new trends, but there are some coins that don't rely on novelty to survive, and Optimism is one of them. The reason it remains at the table ultimately revolves around whether there is real demand for ecological expansion and revenue aggregation. In terms of scale, Optimism is currently roughly at the billion-dollar level, and the track can be categorized into L2/governance. To conclude, it now resembles an asset that needs to be dissected to understand its structure, rather than a name that can be clarified by just its popularity. Whether the market is willing to continue valuing it is not a mystery; it still depends on whether the superchain has incremental growth and whether funds are willing to stay for this line. For projects like Optimism, the most useful perspective is usually quite simple: Is anyone using it? Is money being retained? Are the scenarios becoming clearer? Following this line of thought, we will ultimately return to ecological expansion and revenue aggregation. Thus, its volatility is not just emotional fluctuations; it resembles a vote on whether the market continues to believe in this logic. Many people tend to take two extremes when writing about Optimism: either they deify it or ignore it due to its slow pace. In fact, neither is necessary. A more stable approach is to place it back in the L2/governance position and see if its advantages are still clear compared to projects in the same track, and whether its shortcomings are expanding. If its advantages remain, even if it doesn't rise quickly, the market will eventually redirect its attention back; if the advantages begin to dilute, no matter how loud the narrative is, it won't hold for long. In terms of prospects, I wouldn't view Optimism as a coin that can change its fate solely based on a round of emotions. Whether it has room for growth depends on whether the governance narrative can truly lead to value capture. If this can be validated, there will be reasons to raise its valuation again; if it cannot be validated, the market will quickly retract its imagination. Therefore, such coins are more suitable for continuous tracking rather than drawing conclusions based on just one or two candlesticks. # LayerZero承诺超1万枚ETH支持Aave $BTC

ARB｜Arbitrum Looking at Arbitrum, the biggest fear isn't not understanding it, but only looking at the price without considering the underlying use cases. When this project is truly discussed, it often relates to TVL, active addresses, and protocol share. Its market size is roughly in the billion-dollar range, and it falls within the L2/DeFi track. To conclude, it currently resembles an asset that needs to be analyzed structurally, rather than a name that can be easily defined by its popularity. Whether the market is willing to continue valuing it is not a mystery; it still depends on whether there is an increase in on-chain funds and whether those funds are willing to stay for this line. I prefer to view it as a window for observation. When looking at Arbitrum, it's not just about the ups and downs, but whether the on-chain funds can still hold steady. As long as TVL, active addresses, and protocol share continue to progress, the market will find it hard to completely remove it from the main line; however, once this area starts to loosen, the valuation can easily drop faster than the fundamentals. This is also why it often exhibits a phenomenon: when news comes out, it’s very hot, but when it comes to actual pricing, it’s very realistic. Many people writing about Arbitrum tend to fall into two extremes: either they deify it, or they ignore it due to slow momentum. In fact, neither is necessary. A more stable approach is to place it back in the L2/DeFi position, comparing it with projects in the same track to see if its advantages are still clear and if its shortcomings are expanding. If its advantages remain, even if the rise is slow, the market will eventually redirect its attention back; if the advantages begin to dilute, no matter how loud the narrative, it won't hold up for long. Looking ahead, Arbitrum's ceiling isn't about whether it can tell a new story, but whether it can maintain its leading position until the next round. As long as this main line hasn't broken, it won't easily fall off the hot list; but if the external environment changes, its pressure will also come very directly. When viewed in a portfolio, it resembles an analytical object that requires monitoring of data, rhythm, and realization. # LayerZero承诺超1万枚ETH支持Aave $BTC

LDO｜Lido Some coins become popular right away, but Lido is not one of those. It’s more like a project that requires breaking down the logic to understand why the market still gives it space, with the core being the ETH staking penetration rate and competitive landscape. Based on common metrics, Lido currently falls into the billion-dollar range, corresponding to the staking/DeFi track. To conclude, it now resembles an asset that needs to be analyzed structurally, rather than one that can be easily defined by its popularity. Whether the market is willing to continue valuing it is not a mystery; it still depends on whether the staking share has increased and whether funds are willing to stay for this line. The key to whether this type of asset is worth continuing to discuss is not whether the community will talk about it, but whether the staking share continues to change. The market's view of Lido is becoming increasingly direct, focusing on whether the ETH staking penetration rate and competitive landscape can continue to deliver. If the delivery doesn't keep up, the price may surge initially but easily pull back; if the delivery continues, even if the pace is slow, it may actually help solidify the base. Many people tend to take two extremes when writing about Lido: either they deify it or ignore it entirely due to its slow pace. In fact, neither is necessary. A more stable approach is to place it back in the staking/DeFi position and see if its advantages are still clear compared to projects in the same track, and whether its shortcomings are expanding. If its advantages remain, even if the rise is slow, the market will eventually refocus its attention; if the advantages begin to dilute, even the loudest narrative won't hold up for long. My judgment on Lido leans towards neutral and tracking. It’s not that it lacks imagination, but the market is no longer willing to pay a high premium for pure imagination; what really needs to be watched is whether the leading position will be diluted by new structures. This is also the most interesting aspect: analyzing the logic is sufficient; there’s no need to turn it into an emotional slogan. #美伊走向长期封锁：外交窗口关闭 $BTC

VET｜VeChain Many coins are seen when they are hot, but VeChain seems to be re-understood in the midst of divergence. It doesn't rely on a slogan to hold the stage; what truly makes people come back repeatedly is the business collaborations and on-chain data. In terms of market size, VeChain roughly falls into the billion-dollar level, positioned in the supply chain/RWA sector. To conclude, it now resembles an asset that needs to be unpacked to understand its structure, rather than a name that can be clarified by just its popularity. Whether the market is willing to continue giving it a valuation is not a mystery; it still depends on whether the enterprise implementation has incremental growth and whether funds are willing to stay for this line. At this stage, VeChain is no longer suitable to be summarized with a phrase like "has a story." What truly determines whether it can still be viewed favorably is whether enterprise implementation is still expanding and whether business collaborations and on-chain data can provide stable feedback. The market's patience for it has decreased compared to before; but as long as the data is still there, attention won't just vanish. Many people tend to take two extremes when writing about VeChain: either they deify it or they ignore it due to its slow pace. In fact, neither is necessary. A more stable approach is to place it back in the supply chain/RWA position and see if its advantages are still clear compared to projects in the same sector, and whether its shortcomings are expanding. If its advantages still exist, even if the rise is slow, the market will eventually pull attention back; if the advantages begin to dilute, no matter how loud the narrative is, it won't hold for long. In terms of prospects, I wouldn't view VeChain as a coin that can change its fate solely based on a wave of emotions. Whether it has room for growth depends on whether real-world applications can continuously bring new valuations. If this can be validated, there will be reasons for the valuation to be raised again; if it cannot be validated, the market will quickly retract its imagination. Therefore, such coins are more suitable for continuous tracking rather than drawing conclusions based on just one or two candlesticks. # LayerZero承诺超1万枚ETH支持Aave $ETH

BTC | Bitcoin Bitcoin projects are often overlooked when the market is too noisy. This is because it doesn't tell the most exciting story, but rather addresses more fundamental underlying needs, especially regarding spot ETFs and institutional positions. If categorized by scale, it currently falls into the trillion-dollar category, classified as a store of value/digital gold. To conclude, it now resembles an asset that needs to be examined structurally, rather than one that can be easily defined by its popularity. Whether the market is willing to continue valuing it is not a mystery; it still depends on whether there is incremental macro allocation and whether funds are willing to stay in this line. The key to whether this type of asset is worth continuing to discuss is not whether the community will talk about it, but whether macro allocation continues to occur. Currently, the market's view of Bitcoin is becoming increasingly direct, focusing on whether the spot ETF and institutional positions can continue to deliver. If the delivery doesn't keep up, the price may surge initially but could easily pull back; if the delivery continues, even if the pace is slow, it may actually help solidify the base. Many people tend to take two extremes when writing about Bitcoin: either they deify it or ignore it entirely due to its slow pace. In fact, neither is necessary. A more stable approach is to place it back in the position of a store of value/digital gold, examining whether its advantages remain clear compared to projects in the same field, and whether its shortcomings are expanding. If its advantages still exist, even if it doesn't rise quickly, the market will eventually refocus its attention; if its advantages begin to dilute, even the loudest narrative won't hold up for long. Looking ahead, Bitcoin's ceiling is not about whether it can tell a new story, but whether funds treat it as a risk asset or an alternative reserve. As long as this main line remains intact, it won't easily fall off the hot list; however, if the external environment changes, its pressure will also come directly.

ETH | Ethereum The market chases new trends every round, but there are always some coins that don't rely on novelty to survive, and Ethereum is one of them. The reason it remains at the table ultimately revolves around whether there is real demand for transaction fees, L2 settlements, and staking structures. In terms of scale, Ethereum is currently roughly at the hundred billion dollar level, fitting into the public chain/smart contract category. To conclude, it now resembles an asset that needs to be dissected to understand its structure, rather than a name that can be clarified by simply stating its popularity. Whether the market is willing to continue valuing it is not a mystery; it still depends on whether there is incremental on-chain activity and whether funds are willing to stay for this line. At this stage, Ethereum is no longer suitable to be summarized with a phrase like "it has a story." What truly determines whether it can still be viewed favorably is whether on-chain activity is still expanding and whether transaction fees, L2 settlements, and staking structures can provide stable feedback. The market's patience with it has decreased compared to before; however, as long as the data remains, attention won't just vanish. Many people tend to fall into two extremes when writing about Ethereum: either they deify it or they ignore it entirely due to its slow pace. In fact, neither is necessary. A more stable approach is to place it back in the public chain/smart contract position and see if its advantages are still clear compared to projects in the same track, and whether its shortcomings are expanding. If its advantages remain, even if the rise is slow, the market will eventually redirect its attention back; if the advantages begin to dilute, even the loudest narrative won't hold up for long. My judgment on Ethereum leans towards neutrality and tracking. It is not devoid of imagination, but the market is no longer willing to pay a high premium for pure imagination; what truly needs to be observed is whether developers and liquidity continue to revolve around it. This is also the most interesting aspect: analyzing the logic is sufficient; there is no need to frame it as an emotional slogan. # LayerZero承诺超1万枚ETH支持Aave $BTC

USDT | Tether When looking at Tether, the biggest fear isn't not understanding it, but rather only looking at the price without considering the underlying use cases. When this project is truly discussed, it often relates to the scale of issuance and cross-chain circulation. Its market size is roughly in the hundreds of billions, and it falls within the stablecoin/payment settlement track. To conclude, it now resembles an asset that needs to be dissected to understand its structure, rather than a name that can be clarified by just its popularity. Whether the market is willing to continue valuing it is not a mystery; it still depends on whether there is incremental on-chain settlement and whether funds are willing to stay for this line. For projects like Tether, the most useful perspective is usually quite simple: Is anyone using it? Is money being retained? Are the use cases becoming clearer? Following this line of thought, we will ultimately return to the scale of issuance and cross-chain circulation. Thus, its volatility is not just emotional fluctuations, but more like a vote on whether the market continues to believe in this logic. Many people tend to fall into two extremes when writing about Tether: either they deify it or they ignore it due to its slow pace. In fact, neither is necessary. A more stable approach is to place it back in the stablecoin/payment settlement position and see if its advantages are still clear compared to projects in the same track, and whether its shortcomings are expanding. If its advantages remain, even if it doesn't rise quickly, the market will eventually redirect its attention back; if the advantages begin to dilute, no matter how loud the narrative is, it won't hold for long. In terms of prospects, I wouldn't view Tether as a coin that can change its fate solely based on a wave of emotions. Whether it has room to grow depends on whether regulatory friction will change its usage habits. If this can be validated, there will be a reason for its valuation to be raised again; if it cannot be validated, the market will quickly retract its imagination. Therefore, such coins are more suitable for continuous tracking rather than drawing conclusions based on just one or two candlesticks. #鲍威尔4·29议息：任期收官之战 $BTC

SOL | Solana Some coins become popular right away, but Solana is not one of them. It’s more like a project that requires breaking down the logic to understand why the market still gives it space; the core lies in on-chain users, Meme, and application support. Based on common metrics, Solana currently roughly belongs to the tens of billions category, corresponding to the high-performance public chain track. To conclude, it now resembles an asset that needs to be analyzed structurally, rather than one that can be easily defined by its popularity. Whether the market is willing to continue valuing it is not a mystery; it still depends on whether active trading has increased and whether funds are willing to stay for this line. I prefer to see it as an observation window. Watching Solana is not just about looking at price fluctuations, but about whether active trading can still hold up. As long as on-chain users, Meme, and application support continue to progress, the market will find it hard to completely remove it from the main line; however, once this aspect starts to loosen, the valuation can easily drop faster than the fundamentals. This is also why it often exhibits a phenomenon: it’s very hot when news comes out, but when it comes to actual pricing, it’s very realistic. Many people tend to take two extremes when writing about Solana: either they deify it or they ignore it due to its slow pace. In fact, neither is necessary. A more stable approach is to place it back in the high-performance public chain position, comparing it with projects in the same track to see if its advantages are still clear and if its shortcomings are expanding. If its advantages remain, even if it doesn’t rise quickly, the market will eventually redirect its attention; if the advantages start to dilute, even the loudest narrative won’t hold up for long. Looking ahead, Solana’s upper limit is not about whether it can tell new stories, but whether the excitement can be solidified into long-term retention. As long as this main line hasn’t broken, it won’t easily fall off the hot list; but if the external environment changes, its pressure will also come very directly. In the context of a portfolio, it resembles an analytical object that needs to focus on data, rhythm, and realization. # LayerZero承诺超1万枚ETH支持Aave $BTC

OKB｜OKB Many coins are seen when they are hot, but OKB seems to be reinterpreted amidst divergence. It doesn't rely on a slogan to hold the stage; what truly makes people come back repeatedly is the transaction fee scenario and platform rights. In terms of market size, OKB is roughly in the tens of billions of dollars, positioned in the platform coin/exchange ecosystem. To conclude, it now resembles an asset that needs to be unpacked to understand its structure, rather than a name that can be clarified by just its popularity. Whether the market is willing to continue valuing it is not a mystery; it still depends on whether platform activity has incremental growth and whether funds are willing to stay for this line. Whether this type of asset is worth continuing to discuss is not about whether the community will talk, but whether platform activity continues to occur. The market's view of OKB is becoming increasingly direct, focusing on whether the transaction fee scenario and platform rights can continue to be fulfilled. If the fulfillment doesn't keep up, the price may easily retreat after a surge; if the fulfillment continues, even if the pace is slow, it may actually help solidify the base. Many people tend to take two extremes when writing about OKB: either they deify it or ignore it entirely due to the slow pace. In fact, neither is necessary. A more stable approach is to place it back in the platform coin/exchange ecosystem and see if its advantages are still clear compared to projects in the same track, and whether its shortcomings are expanding. If its advantages remain, even if the rise is not urgent, the market will eventually refocus its attention; if the advantages begin to dilute, even the loudest narrative won't hold for too long. My judgment on OKB is somewhat neutral and observational. It is not without imagination, but the market is no longer willing to pay too high a premium for pure imagination; what really needs to be observed is whether platform growth can continue to translate into token value. This is also the most interesting aspect: analyzing the logic is enough; there is no need to write it as an emotional slogan. #鲍威尔4·29议息：任期收官之战 $BTC