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The Persian Gulf these days is thick with tension that chokes the throat. In the early hours of May 11, a U.S. merchant ship was struck by an Iranian drone in the Persian Gulf. On the same day, Iranian air defense forces shot down an unidentified reconnaissance drone. A few days earlier, on May 7, a U.S. warship forcibly entered the Strait of Hormuz, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's fast boats directly confronted it, nearly sparking a firefight. This cat-and-mouse game at sea between the two sides has become a dangerous standoff that could ignite at any moment. But no matter how fierce the fighting, it ultimately has to come back to the negotiating table. The problem is: they can't reach an agreement. #特朗普再驳伊朗和平计划 On May 10, Iran conveyed through Pakistan a clear rejection of the U.S. ceasefire proposal. Trump immediately fired back on social media, calling Iran's conditions "completely unacceptable." His words left no room for compromise. Simply put, the offers from both sides don't match what the other has in hand. Iran's demands are tough: First, the U.S. must formally recognize Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz in writing and pay war reparations. Second, all sanctions must be lifted within 30 days, and all frozen overseas assets must be fully unfrozen. Third, a permanent ceasefire and full U.S. military withdrawal must be guaranteed before sitting down to discuss nuclear issues and the next phase. What about Washington? Trump's team insists on one thing: Iran must halt uranium enrichment activities for 15 to 20 years, dismantle some nuclear facilities, and make prior commitments on the nuclear program and final disposal of highly enriched uranium, or there will be no talks. To pressure Iran into submission, the U.S. military has deployed over 20 warships to effectively blockade the Gulf, rerouted 61 merchant ships, and disabled 4 vessels. This posture hardly looks like a setup for good-faith negotiations. The most critical issue is the nuclear question. Iran insists all nuclear discussions be postponed to subsequent talks. Currently, Iran holds uranium enriched to 60% purity, just a step away from weapons-grade. There were rumors that Iran proposed diluting some enriched uranium and transferring some to a third country, but only on the condition that if the U.S. tears up the agreement again, the material must be returned. However, Iranian officials quickly denied these reports and flatly rejected U.S. demands to dismantle nuclear facilities. As negotiations falter, the oil market reacts first. Brent crude prices surged over 3% in one go, breaking above $104 per barrel. Traders know well that if the Strait of Hormuz is truly choked off, a large portion of global oil transport would be paralyzed. The international community is not idle either. Regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Qatar are busy relaying messages on both sides, trying to broker a minimal mutual understanding, but no one dares to guarantee success. More intriguingly, Trump plans to visit China from May 13 to 15. It is expected that the Iran issue will be a major topic at the table with Chinese leaders, with Washington likely hoping China will leverage its influence over Tehran to help untangle this deadlock. Allies are also calculating their own interests. The French have been straightforward, saying they "never considered" sending troops to the Strait of Hormuz; the British are clear, with the Ministry of Defense announcing the "Dragon" destroyer is "pre-deployed" to the Middle East. The most disruptive is Israel: Netanyahu warns the UK and France not to get involved militarily, while simultaneously stating that U.S.-Israeli joint operations "are not over," clearly wanting to escalate the conflict further. The current situation is like a tightening noose. Iran demands sovereignty and real financial compensation; the U.S. demands Iran first bow on nuclear capabilities. Both sides' bottom lines are as hard as reefs, with neither willing to blink first. Real weapons are already drawn at sea, diplomatic channels are red-lighted, and this boiling pot in the Middle East could spill over and burn the whole world at any time. $BTC $ETH $SOL

$BTC Evening Review: Don't chase the wave, this position is easy to get hit from both sides At this position, don't force chasing, really, it's not worth it. There is full support below; if you chase in, there's not much room downwards, and if it rebounds upwards, you'll feel uncomfortable. The risk-reward ratio isn't worth it. Then look at that doji candle later, very interesting. After BTC broke below 81631, the bulls resisted and tried to pull it back up, but it just couldn't hold above. This is a confirmation telling us that 81631 has turned from support into resistance; if it can't reclaim it, it means weakness. That's why it tested 80319 again later. Currently, the short-term market structure is a breakdown. Now it's in the rebound phase after the breakdown. The key is whether the rebound can get back into the previous consolidation range. If it can't, it remains weak, and the previous low at 80319 will likely be tested again. Testing it again might break it. If 80319 breaks, the next level to watch is the previous low at 79137. If it stabilizes at 79137 and forms a double bottom, it can hold for a while and give you a consolidation structure. If 79137 breaks smoothly, then the downside space opens up, and you need to look for a bottom around 78000-77300. Remember, brothers, as long as 78768 is not broken, the market is only in a correction, not a reversal or a crash, so don't scare yourself. Tonight, watch two key levels; the rest is noise: · 80935: This is the lifeline for the bulls. If the price can climb back above this with volume and hold, then you can chase long on the right side, targeting 82334 to 83167. If it can't get above, it's nothing. · 79168: This is the neckline of a potential 4-hour head formation. If this breaks, the head structure is confirmed, and the downside space opens. So for the bulls, this is your last line of defense. For those wanting to go long, don't gamble on the left side; be patient and wait for the price to firmly hold above 80935 before entering on the right side. Place your stop loss just below 80935. That stop loss is better than getting buried trying to catch the bottom. For those wanting to short, don't chase either; wait. Either wait for it to rebound and fail to break 80935, forming a lower high before shorting; or wait for a decisive break below 79168 and then follow the trend with a short position. Also, the 4-hour candle now is very critical. If it closes without reclaiming more than half of the previous big bearish candle's body, don't talk about stopping the decline; the downtrend will likely continue grinding. Only if it rebounds more than half can we say there's some sign of a bottom. Right now, bulls and bears are fighting fiercely; one step forward is treasure, one step back is grass. Don't rush; wait for the market to give the answer before making a move. $BTC $ETH $SOL

An eight-year-old whale uses its own position to tell everyone: play it safe with BTC, gamble with ETH. #沉寂8年巨鲸四天清空$13.5亿ETH An old address that had been dormant for years suddenly woke up and immediately dumped 577,000 ETH into exchanges, converting it into $1.35 billion. But guess what—the 11,500 BTC in that wallet didn’t move a bit, kept there like an offering to ancestors. This isn’t an ordinary sell-off; this is big money stomping on ETH’s face with their feet, while simultaneously elevating BTC even higher on the pedestal. You could say the ETH/BTC rate has crashed badly, but this whale openly shows: I won’t budge on BTC for anything, and I don’t want to hold ETH even for a minute. Think about it, back in February this year, he opened a $660 million ETH long position on Hyperliquid, fully leveraged, only to get pierced by that spike and lose $230 million. That’s $230 million, folks—real money down the drain without a sound. After that blowout, this guy probably realized—no more leverage, no more spot holdings, clean everything out. From holding on to even spot being too hot to handle, you can tell how deep the wounds must be to make such a decision. And I’m not trying to stir anxiety; those watching on-chain should have noticed this isn’t an isolated case. The overall holdings of Ethereum whales have shrunk by over 20% from last year’s peak, with many big holders lining up to reduce positions. Another address dumped 240,000 ETH in just three days. It’s truly a collective withdrawal, not a single panic—just a group’s patience running out. Institutions are pragmatic too: Bitcoin ETFs have been pulling in over $2.4 billion monthly, while ETH ETFs only see tens of millions, like giving alms to beggars. Now the ETH pile in exchanges is mountain-high, reserves nearly hitting 3.62 million. Just in the last three days, $1 billion in spot ETH flowed in, with prices stuck grinding between 2300 and 2400, supported only by the 2150 to 2200 range below. If that support breaks, the next stop is 1830—no joke. So does that mean ETH has no hope? Not exactly. The only hope is the June Glamsterdam upgrade, promising parallel transactions and account abstraction, aiming to turn this broken network from a single lane into a highway. If it really lands, it could at least strengthen the narrative and give bulls a lifeline. But think about it—if ETH is really going to take off, how many conditions need to be met: big money flowing back into ETFs, easing rate cut expectations, the upgrade not getting delayed, and BTC rising enough to spill funds over to ETH. Count how many of these four are in place now? None. So why would the old whale wait? Better to clear out and lie comfortably in BTC. So do you think this is a stupid move? I don’t think so. After losing $230 million in liquidations, he did the math: right now BTC is king, ETH is at best an unstable little brother, and he’s done babysitting the prince. Dumping? No, he’s reallocating. Using $1.35 billion in chips to tell the whole market: I choose Bitcoin. ETH won’t die, but if you want to hold it this year for excess returns, be prepared for repeated torment—ten times harder than just holding Bitcoin. What do you think? Can ETH hold out until the upgrade saves it, or will it bow down with a bunch of bulls? Let’s hear it in the comments, I’ll keep chatting on my livestream tonight. DYOR, don’t gamble with your living expenses. $ETH $BTC $SOL

Don't be fooled by the recent dull market that makes you want to sleep, but I advise you to stay alert these days. On May 14th, the CLARITY Act will be reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee. If this passes, it will be more exciting than any halving or ETF approval because this is the first time a law officially gives your coins a "legal status." #CLARITY法案：5月14日审议在即 Let's skip the fluff and get to the point: if this act passes, your $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP will essentially get an ID card. Previously, the SEC would arbitrarily label this as a security or that as illegal fundraising, causing constant anxiety in the industry. This act categorizes tokens into three types: digital commodities, investment contract assets, and stablecoins. In March, the SEC and CFTC jointly issued a statement pre-classifying 16 coins under the CFTC's jurisdiction as "digital commodities," including BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. This means these big players no longer have to worry about SEC trouble. They can be legally listed and traded, and institutional investors who usually act all high and mighty can now openly join in. I've heard some analysts make wild but impressive predictions that over $3 trillion in institutional funds could flood in before 2030. I don't know if that's true, but I'm choosing to believe it this time. There's also a hidden clause called the "grandfather clause." Simply put, some sufficiently decentralized projects can graduate from "security" status to "commodity." In DeFi, those involved in staking and market making, as long as they operate purely (like on-chain non-custodial setups), won't need to register with the SEC. Honestly, this clause is quite considerate and not some draconian law that kills all innovation. Now, about whether it will pass by the end of May. I know everyone is skeptical because every year there's talk of favorable bills that get delayed. But this time is different. Senator Moreno openly stated: if it doesn't pass by the end of May, the next legislative window won't be until 2030. Why? Because right now, all legislative bodies are in a crypto-friendly "political climate window," a rare opportunity in U.S. history. With midterm elections just over a year away, the landscape could change drastically, and everything might have to start over. So, the folks in Washington are actually more anxious than we are. Banking Committee Chair Scott said they aim to finish before the recess on the 21st, and the White House hopes the president can sign it before Independence Day (July 4th). Time is really tight, considering all the procedures ahead. But there is resistance. The banking sector can't sit still and issued a joint statement opposing the bill, arguing that allowing stablecoins to pay yields to users would drain bank deposits. In plain terms, it threatens their profits. So these days are the final showdown between crypto advocates and traditional finance. On Polymarket, the probability of passage jumped from 38% to 46%. Not high, but much livelier than before. My personal feeling is: it will most likely pass, but the process will drag until the last moment. The "boy who cried wolf" story might finally end this time. Lastly, let's talk about the bigger picture. Have you noticed that while the U.S. is busy setting the stage, Brazil suddenly raised a big axe—directly banning the use of stablecoins for cross-border payments starting in October. The two countries are heading in completely opposite directions. Why is Brazil so anxious? Because 90% of crypto trading there involves stablecoins, and they feel uneasy with money moving in and out of regulation right under their noses, so they just cut it off. It's like an old-school parent who bans what they can't control. Is this split good or bad? In the short term, it's really exhausting. Project teams have to deal with several completely different sets of rules simultaneously, which is overwhelming. But in the long run, I think this might be the least bad scenario. Everyone is feeling their way across the river, trying different approaches. As they run, the best solutions will emerge and gradually align. It's better than forcing a dumb global rule from the start that blocks all paths. It's like a group running on different tracks toward the same goal. Although each runs their own race, as long as the finish line is to help the industry grow healthily, it's better than standing still. The chaos and darkness that have been criticized for years might be slowly illuminated. Whether or not you catch this wave of wealth, at least you witness history being rewritten. Hold on to what you believe, keep a clear head, and don't get shaken off by noise. Watch more and act less these days; wait until after the 14th to make any moves. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Here's a signal that many people ignored today but is actually very significant. #比特币ETF：摩根士丹利首月零流出 Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF MSBT has been listed for a full month, 17 trading days, with zero outflows. Just this one sentence already carries a huge amount of information. More importantly, their legitimate high-net-worth advisory channels and private banking channels have not yet been fully opened. They haven't fully launched or aggressively promoted it, but they've already stabilized the holdings—no money has flowed out. This is not short-term money coming in to join the hype; this is a traditional major bank genuinely planning to hold Bitcoin long-term. Many people are still fixated on the 82,000 range, thinking the market is frustrating and directionless. But what really determines how far this BTC cycle can go has never been short-term sentiment, but whether Wall Street players truly recognize it. Now the answer is clear: they not only recognize it, but are quietly building their positions. Let's talk about three of the most puzzling questions everyone has recently, straightforwardly and plainly. First, with a commercial bank of Morgan Stanley's caliber officially entering the market, how high can BTC's ceiling be pushed? Previously, BlackRock and Fidelity opened the door to asset management company money; this time, Morgan Stanley's entry means the commercial banking system has truly put Bitcoin on the allocatable list. Don't underestimate this difference—behind it is trillions in wealth management funds. People used to say $100,000 was a big milestone, but now it’s clear that traditional institutions aren’t here to just trade a wave; they are slowly allocating and holding long-term. Price levels aren’t just guesses; they are built step by step by capital. Where do you think the next key level is? Second, the Bitcoin ETF fee war has quietly begun and will only get fiercer. Morgan Stanley has directly set the fee at 0.14%, the lowest in the entire market. By comparison, BlackRock's IBIT is 0.25%, Fidelity is also 0.25%, the difference is obvious at a glance. Don’t think a few tenths of a percent is insignificant; for institutional large capital, fee differences are real costs. Previously, IBIT could absorb most inflows because low fees were a core advantage. Now Morgan Stanley has pushed the bottom line down, and BlackRock and Fidelity won’t just sit still. In the upcoming ETF market, forget the flashy stories—low fees, stable channels, and secure capital will win market share. The fee war will definitely be the main theme of the next phase. Third, and the most confusing for many: People keep talking about ETF net inflows, hundreds of billions of real money pouring in, yet BTC stubbornly oscillates around 80,000, institutions keep buying, but the price doesn’t surge—why? Actually, it’s very simple. Institutions buy ETFs as allocation, not to pump the price. They want stable, controllable, and cost-effective holdings; the more it oscillates, the more they can slowly build their positions without rushing to push the price up. Meanwhile, profit-taking and short-term speculative funds above 80,000 are gradually selling off in batches. The buying and selling forces are balanced, resulting in "capital keeps flowing in, but price stays flat." This kind of movement is not weakness. It’s more like energy building. Historically, several times ETF funds flowed in continuously first, with price lagging for a while, then followed by a steadier, more sustained main rise. The longer it stays flat now, the more solid the institutional base, and the more certain the upside potential. Finally, a straightforward statement. Morgan Stanley’s zero outflow in the first month is not a trivial news item. It’s a landmark moment for traditional finance fully embracing Bitcoin. The fee war has started, compliant funds keep flowing in, institutions quietly accumulate—these three things together mean the main storyline of the market has long changed. Short-term fluctuations are normal; don’t let a few days of oscillation throw off your rhythm. The real trend has always been hidden in the real money of institutions. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Trump directly blasted on Truth Social, saying Iran's new plan is "totally unacceptable." Note, this is the classic tactic of negotiating while fighting. Just as the White House said "talks are going well," they turned hostile right after, essentially pushing the negotiations to the brink to see who blinks first. #特朗普再驳伊朗和平计划 The deadlock is simple: the US wants Iran to permanently give up its nuclear program, while Iran is only willing to pause it. On Tehran’s side, the Supreme Leader’s son has been out of sight for a long time, casting doubt on whether he can make decisions; inside Washington, there’s also infighting—one faction fears oil prices will blow up the election, another wants to directly dismantle Iran’s nuclear facilities. This division guarantees the negotiations will be a repeated tug-of-war; don’t expect a single rejection to be the end—it's purely "fight to show strength, then come back to talk." This time Trump directly said Iran’s plan is completely unacceptable, which is no surprise. Both sides want fundamentally different things: Washington demands Tehran completely abandon the idea, while Iran is at most willing to temporarily halt. What’s more uncertain is that the real decision-maker in Iran reportedly has been in poor health and hasn’t appeared publicly for a long time; Washington itself is also divided—one side worries oil prices will drive inflation and affect the election, the other thinks it’s better to solve the problem cleanly now. With such internal discord, reaching a result is a low-probability event. So when crude oil hits 100, many ask what this means for BTC. The market movement earlier this year already gave part of the answer. Back then, BTC slid from 93,000 down to just over 60,000, dropping nearly 40%, tightly correlated with US stocks. The logic is clear: soaring oil prices push up inflation expectations, the market bets the Fed won’t ease, and once liquidity tightening is expected, whether crypto or stocks, the first move is to reduce positions. Short-term hopes for a safe-haven narrative are unrealistic. But it’s not all pessimistic. After a deep drop, capital will start to reassess why BTC was allocated in the first place—not because it can hedge today, but because sovereign credit is indeed deteriorating in the long term. The logic of non-sovereign hard assets remains intact; it’s just a matter of timing. There’s a signal worth noting from the Strait side. A few days ago, a Qatari LNG ship successfully passed through for the first time in over two months. Iran probably feels the pressure too; blockades hurt both the enemy and themselves. Going forward, there might be a slow, conditional easing—some room to loosen but no promises. Returning to the old unrestricted passage state is unlikely in the short term. In this market, how to manage positions varies by individual, but one thing is certain: the worst thing now is to get carried away. No matter how loud the outside noise is, the most important thing is to ensure you stay at the table. $BTC $ETH $BZ